Season End Rotation Review: David Price

We would like to thank everybody for reading these features throughout the year. Rather than ending with a simple review of September performances, we decided to look back at the year as whole. You can read past Rotation Reviews here.

Final Pitching Line (with Toronto): 9-1, 2.30 ERA, 11 GS, 74 1/3 IP, 57 H, 20 R, 19 ER, 87 K, 18 BB, 4 HR, 0 HBP. 

When it is all said and done, David Price may end up having one of the biggest impacts in franchise history, even if he’s around for just half a season. Of course, that has more to do with showing the fanbase what a winning culture looks like which, while important, doesn’t do justice to just how great Price has been as a Blue Jay. The AL Cy Young may not go to David Price, as Dallas Keuchel has had an excellent season pitching in the extreme launching pad known as Minute Maid Park, but there is no doubt Price is also deserving of the honour.

Price started off strong, striking out 11 Twins over 8 innings in his Blue Jays debut, and from there on all he did was dominate. He finished with an ERA of 2.30, producing 9 quality starts in 11 games, and he struck out 29.4% of batters and went 7+ innings in 8 of 11 starts. Price only handed out 18 free passes with the Blue Jays, in large part due to a phenomenal 68.2% of first pitches being strikes. That would put him 5^th in the league tied with Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw. Another thing that may have helped Price is Toronto’s propensity to play the shift. In Detroit the defense was shifted behind him around 32% of the time while with the Jays it was right around 40%. On the surface it may not seem like a huge difference, but once you factor in that hitters saw a spike in the number of balls that were pulled on the ground (see below), it becomes a noticeable.Price recorded 6 extra outs due to the shift while in Toronto. That number is identical to the one he posted with the Tigers, except he did it in the 191 times the ball was put in play with the Blue Jays compared to 422 opportunities in Detroit.

David Price Batted Ball Locations

Perhaps one of the most amazing things about Price is how his release points are so identical. His ability to repeat his delivery combined with his pure ability to manipulate a baseball are what make him such a great starting pitcher.

He can throw five pitches for strikes, and all five have at least borderline elite bat missing potential. As Chris Sherwin showed us a few months ago, David Price is constantly making adjustments to right his mechanics and the same can be said for how he pitches; He will change how he attacks hitters on a game to game basis, making it very hard to use advance scouting to beat him. On that note, there was a lot made about the increased usage of David Price’s cutter while throwing to Russell Martin. Along with the increased usage, Price saw a jump in velocity and switch in movement on the cutter. What is going somewhat unnoticed though, is the rise in whiff% on all of his pitches except the changeup. Since being traded, Price has recorded a Whiff% of over 10% on every pitch he throws. What caused this jump in swing and miss ability? There are likely a few factors in play like competition and batter handedness, but the biggest one is that Price is getting more movement .

Jumping back to his cutter usage, not only did it increase, but the locations he threw it were completely different. With the Blue Jays, the lanky lefty started throwing substantially more cutters inside to right handed hitters while also throwing more cutters up and inside to lefties. As a result, he managed to keep the ball on the ground more with the pitch (51.7% Groundball rate with Jays and 41.1% with Tigers and saw his Isolated Slugging drop 50 points and his OPS drop 220 points off the cutter).

David Price Cutter Location by Handedness and Team

One other difference is that Price threw more changeups with Toronto to lefthanded batters than he did with the Tigers, and even though his whiff rate went down on the pitch, he still saw far more softly hit balls once in the 6ix.

Whether or not David Price wins the Cy Young isn’t a huge deal, there are others who deserve it just as much, and as you can see above, even have Price’s support. His regular season may be over, but he’s not done. Next up is the Texas Rangers, and they better be ready, because David Price is a true ace.

Heat Maps courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info
Usage/movement charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Featured picture courtesy of Arturo Pardavila III under CC BY 2.0. Photo has been cropped from its original size.

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